Analyzing demand and supply dynamics in crop husbandry: Key findings from the report

The National Institution for Transforming India (NITI) Aayog established a Working Group on Crop Husbandry and Agriculture on August 29, 2022, to examine the demand and supply of various food commodities by 2047. Prof. Pratap Singh Birthal, Director of ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research in New Delhi, takes control of the Inputs, Demand, and Supply Committee.

The lack of data on food consumption after 2011-12 is a significant restriction in predicting food demand. India faces several challenges in managing food demand and supply in the future as well as outlined in the Working Group Report on Demand & Supply. Some of these challenges include:

  1. Limited Land and Water Resources: India has limited land and water resources, which are predicted to diminish due to competing needs for residential, energy, and industrial purposes. This scarcity makes it difficult to meet the rising demand for food goods.
  2. Biological and abiotic pressures: Climate change, insect pest infestations, and illnesses all put pressure on India’s food production system. If these issues are not addressed properly, they might harm crop yields and food supplies.
  3. Low yield efficiency: While India leads in crop area and production, it trails behind in yield efficiency. To boost food production and satisfy rising demand, yield potential must be maximized and land utilization efficiency improved.
  4. Deficiency in Edible Oils and Pulses: India has edible oil and pulse deficits, requiring imports to meet domestic demand. Achieving self-sufficiency in these areas presents a challenge that must be addressed.
  5. Nutritional challenges:The report emphasizes dietary issues, with a considerable proportion of children under the age of five being underweight, stunted, or wasted. Ensuring universal access to nutritious and healthy food is critical to attaining zero hunger by 2030.

Moreover,  per capita consumption of food expenditure (at 2011-12 prices) increased by 62.87% between 1972-73 and 2011-12.

Household consumption of pulses and high-value food commodities such as fruits, vegetables, milk and non-vegetarian products is increasing over time. Consumption of these commodities is strongly associated with the income of the households. With the increase in income, their demand is expected to increase at a faster rate compared to cereals.

Consumption of food commodities in rural and urban areas

The primary components of food demand include household demand, food away from home (FAFH) demand, feed, seed, waste, and other uses. It also indicates that home-cooked meals account for the majority of total food demand. These elements are critical to consider when studying and forecasting food demand trends and patterns.

The primary quality concern affecting India’s fish exports is that misuse or overuse of veterinary drugs in fishery and aquaculture can result in high levels of residues in fishery products, causing export rejections.

Food demand is anticipated to increase by 2.44% year between 2019-20 and 2047-48. If the economy expands quickly, the growth rate will increase from 2.69 to 3.07%. The rise would differ across the food commodities, primarily 0.34% for rice, and 5.42% for meat. In 2047-48, foodgrain output is expected to exceed demand. The surplus can be sold offshore to gain foreign exchange. Rice and wheat will contribute the majority of the excess grains. As consumer awareness and government emphasis increase, demand for Nutri-cereals is expected to rise. However, production will not meet demand until area expansion and yield augmentation are implemented. Production of fruits and vegetables fall short of their demand which is expected to continue until acceleration in existing yield growth takes place. Similarly, a shortfall in the production of edible oils is expected to continue in the short run.

Overall, India’s food production has shown remarkable growth and self-sufficiency over the past five decades, positioning the country as a significant player in the global agricultural market.

The report released by NITI Aayog also includes the fertilizer recommendation for the forthcoming years.,

Pesticide demand is expected to rise from 79,233 tonnes in 2030-31 to 1,18,405 tonnes in 2047-48 under the BAU scenario. The consumption per hectare is predicted to be 0.39 kg in 2030-31 and 0.55 kg in 2047-48. The assumption of a 10% decrease in cotton area expansion (the largest user of pesticides) would result in lower pesticide consumption (68,062 tonnes in 2030-31 and 83,209 tonnes in 2047-48).

Participants are actively involved in the discussions and decision-making processes related to the demand and supply projections of agricultural commodities. Various government officials and experts participated, focused on topics like organic farming, certification systems, and schemes supporting farmers which are as follows,

Several strategies to improve food systems through digital innovations

  • Various digital innovations such as irrigation optimization, aerial application of agrochemicals, weather advisories, disease diagnosis, and marketing can be implemented.
  • Strengthening international market intelligence to identify market destinations, tariff measures, and non-tariff measures. Promoting good agricultural practices (GAP), good manufacturing practices (GMP), and good handling practices (GHP) are suggested to ensure compliance with food safety standards.
  • Continuous updates and systematic databases on household consumption patterns are deemed essential for understanding market signals and demand dynamics.

Link

NITI Aayog Report

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